Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Let's assume--and keeping in mind that it is a very fluid count plus there are thousands of fraud allegations--that this pattern holds.
Would voters who didn't vote for Karzai in round one cast ballots for him in the run-off, or is Abdullah the beneficiary?
If Abdullah wins, what does this do for U.S. strategy? Further stabilize the north but hinder efforts to gain support among Pashtuns against the Taliban?
Like Bosnia, Afghanistan is a country where one group forms a clear plurality but where this plurality cannot dominate the entire country. If you have a "minority" president and a northern dominated government, does this act as a shot in the arm for the Taliban revival in the guise of protecting the Pashtuns?
Just some speculation.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Claiming Success from the Weather
And piracy is increasingly a global criminal enterprise, not just a bunch of rag-tag fisherman. As he notes today over at Foreign Policy:
... modern piracy is a sophisticated enterprise; pirates have proven themselves to be highly adaptable. Turkish Rear Adm. Caner Bener, commander of CTF 151, acknowledged last month, "While our ability to deter and disrupt attacks has improved over time, we are constantly adapting the way we do our business as the pirates adapt and modify their tactics."
Friday, August 21, 2009
Chicken and Egg
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
The Russians are Coming?
Some of my thoughts over at GlobalSecurity.org.
Monday, August 10, 2009
In security terms, we group the United States, Canada and Mexico within the rubric of NORTHCOM--envisioning North America as a single defense community. We hear the rhetoric about cooperation on drugs, crime, immigration and the economy--but it seems that we are still quite ambivalent about pursuing closer North American integration. (On a side note, we Americans critize the Europeans for their unwillingness to expand the EU to Turkey and Ukraine--but their reasons and concerns are similar to ours regarding Mexico, it seems).
So I see statements coming from this summit but don't know to what extent the Western Hemisphere is at the top of the administration's priorities.
Monday, August 03, 2009
King Abdullah's Questions
What is your goal? What will you do if this does not work? What will you do if the Chinese and the Russians are not with you? How will you deal with Iran’s nuclear program if there is not a united response?